A tropical storm is likely to form in the next few days between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and that become a hurricane late this week as we near the peak of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Where is this system: Right now, it's over the far eastern Atlantic as marked by the red "X" in the map below. It's a disturbance known as a tropical wave, or African easterly wave. These disturbances in the atmosphere move from east to west off Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and are often the seeds of tropical storms and hurricanes. The disturbance has been tagged as Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This is a naming convention used by the NHC to track disturbances in the Atlantic that have some chance to form into a tropical depression or storm. (MORE: What is an invest?) Where and when it could develop: Most computer forecast models suggest it will likely develop into a tropical depression or storm around mid-week when it's between Africa and the Caribbean. That area of likely development is highlighted in red on the map below. "Lee" will be the name given to the next Atlantic tropical storm. A separate area closer to Africa is also being watched for development, but this potential system is most likely to curve out into the open Atlantic. Is it a Caribbean threat? This system will track toward the west-northwest. That will bring it over increasingly warm ocean water, though it may have to battle with some dry air in the Atlantic's main development region east of the Lesser Antilles. But it's not certain whether the storm, possible hurricane, will track far enough north of the northern Leeward Islands to bring just a brush of gusty winds and showers, or whether it will track directly over parts of those islands. Interests in the northern Leewards Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, should monitor the progress of this forecast closely this week. What may happen after that? A combination of factors will determine where it eventually goes next week. That includes how strong and expansive the Bermuda-Azores high is at the time. This acts as a steering wheel for tropical waves, storms and hurricanes in the tropics. If this Bermuda-Azores high is weaker and less expansive, that means this system could recurve into the central Atlantic without threatening land. If the high is stronger, more expansive and builds westward, that could steer this system farther west and potentially become a threat to at least parts of the Caribbean. For now, the majority of ensemble computer model guidance suggests the "recurve" scenario is most possible next week. But that could change. Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this, and the 2023 hurricane season. Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads and Facebook.
Leave a Comment